March Madness bracket predictions 6.0: Projecting the Field of 68 for 2026 NCAA Tournament
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Conference tournament week is here.
Five teams have clinched spots in the 2025-26 NCAA Tournament, and Selection Sunday looms on March 15. What drama could unfold this week?
The No. 1 seeds have changed in our latest projections. Duke and Michigan – and likely Arizona – look good for No. 1 seeds. All three teams finished 29-2 in the regular season, and that should be rewarded. Florida overtakes UConn for the final No. 1 seed, and that could change based on results in the SEC and Big East tournaments.
The bubble also will be worth watching in the last week. VCU, Missouri, SMU and Indiana our last four teams in. New Mexico, Auburn, San Diego State and Seton Hall are our first four teams out.
This year's Final Four is April 4-6 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Moved in: Lehigh, Monmouth, Northern Iowa, Queens University, UC-Irvine
Moved out: Belmont, Central Arkansas, Hawai'i, Navy, UNC-Wilmington
Who is in our latest Field of 68? A closer look:
+ -Clinched automatic NCAA tournament berth
* - Projected automatic bid
** - Last four in
MORE: Automotic bid tracker for NCAA Tournament
NCAA tournament Field of 68 projections
No. 1 Seeds
*Duke (29-2, 17-1 ACC)
Resume: KenPom: 1, Net: 1. Cameron Boozer had 26 points, 15 rebounds and five assists in a 76-61 victory against North Carolina. Duke has 15 Quad 1 victories. The Blue Devils will try to win the ACC tournament for the third time in four years.
*Michigan (29-2, 19-1 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom 2, Net 2. Michigan capped off a Big Ten championship season with a 90-80 victory against rival Michigan State. The Wolverines will look for a second straight Big Ten tournament championship under coach Dusty May.
*Arizona (29-2, 16-2 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom 3, Net 3. Arizona is on a six-game winning streak – and that includes victories against four ranked Big 12 opponents. Koa Peat had 25 points in a 89-79 victory against Colorado in the regular-season finale.
*Florida (25-6, 16-2 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 4, Net: 4. Florida jumps up to the No. 1 line heading into the SEC tournament. The Gators have a 11-5 record against Quad 1. Thomas Haugh averaged 21 points and seven rebounds in victories against Arkansas and Kentucky to close out the regular season.
No. 2 Seeds
*UConn (27-4, 17-3 Big East)
Resume: KenPom: 11, Net: 9. The Huskies slipped a line after a 68-62 loss against Marquette, a game in which coach Dan Hurley was ejected. The Huskies are the No. 2 seed in the Big East tournament behind regular-season champion St. John's.
Houston (26-5, 14-4 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom: 6, Net: 7. The Cougars could still work into the No. 1 seed conversation with a strong showing in the Big 12 tournament. Houston is 7-5 in Quad 1 and does not have a loss in Quads 2-4.
Illinois (24-7, 15-5 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 5, Net: 5. Freshman David Mirkovic averaged 20.5 points and nine rebounds in victories against Oregon and Maryland to close out the Big Ten season. Illinois will look for its third Big Ten tournament championship since 2021 this week.
Michigan State (25-6, 15-5 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 9, Net: 11. The Spartans were swept by Michigan, but coach Tom Izzo still has Michigan State on this line after a strong regular season. It's a close call with Nebraska – a matchup that could materialize in the Big Ten semifinals.
No. 3 Seeds
Nebraska (26-5, 15-5 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 12, Net: 12. The Huskers have an almost identical resume to Michigan State, including a 58-56 head-to-head victory in the regular season. Five Huskers average more than nine points per game under coach Fred Hoiberg.
Iowa State (25-6, 12-6 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom: 7, Net: 8. The Cyclones could make a jump to the No. 2 line with a strong showing in the Big 12 tournament. Iowa State is 6-6 in Quad 1 and has a 10-0 record in Quad 2. It's a strong resume.
Alabama (23-8, 13-5 SEC)
Resume: KenPom 15, Net 17. Alabama has made it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament three of the last four years under coach Nate Oats. Labaron Philon Jr. averaged 23.3 points in the Crimson Tide's last three games.
Purdue (23-8, 13-7 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 8, Net: 10. The Boilermakers are ahead of Kansas on the No. 3 line – at least for now. Purdue lost three of its last four games in Big Ten play. The Boilermakers allowed 85 points per game in those losses.
No. 4 seeds
Kansas (22-9, 12-6 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom 19, Net 19. The Jayhawks are one of the more polarizing teams among the higher seeds. Darryn Peterson had 27 points, five rebounds and four assists in a 104-85 victory against Kansas State in the regular-season finale.
Gonzaga (28-3, 16-2 West Coast)
Resume: KenPom: 10, Net: 6. Gonzaga begins West Coast Conference tournament play on Monday. This feels like the right line for the Bulldogs, who have a 6-2 record in Quad 1 with one Quad 3 loss.
Virginia (27-4, 15-3 ACC)
Resume: KenPom 20, Net 14. The Cavaliers have one loss since Jan. 27 – and that was a 77-51 loss at Duke on Feb. 28. First-year coach Ryan Odom is among the Coach of the Year candidates as a result.
St. John's (25-6, 18-2 Big East)
Resume: KenPom 21, Net 22. The Red Storm won the Big East for the second straight season under Rick Pitino. St. John's is still tough to seed because of a 4-5 record against Quad 1 opponents and a Quad 3 loss, but we'll keep them on this line heading into the Big East tournament.
No. 5 seeds
Vanderbilt (24-7, 11-7 SEC)
Resume: KenPom 13, Net 16. The Commodores could bump up a line after an impressive week that included road victories at Ole Miss and Tennessee. Arkansas could also move into this line depending on how the SEC tournament plays out.
Arkansas (23-8, 13-5 SEC)
Resume: KenPom 18, Net 18. The Razorbacks have won four of their last five games heading into the SEC tournament under John Calipari. Darius Acuff (22.2 ppg.) sat out the regular-season finale against Missouri because of an ankle injury.
Texas Tech (22-9, 12-6)
Resume: KenPom 17, Net 15. The Red Raiders lost to TCU and BYU last week – and JT Toppin's season-ending injury looms heading into the Big 12 tournament. Texas Tech does have an 8-8 record against Quad 1 – which means they might be a touch under-seeded.
Wisconsin (22-9, 14-6 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom 23, Net 26. The Badgers are a dangerous team heading into the Big Ten tournament. Wisconsin was 3-1 against the top four seeds in the tournament and has a 8-7 record against Quad 1 opponents.
No. 6 seeds
Tennessee (21-10, 11-7 SEC)
Resume: KenPom 14, Net 21. The Volunteers have lost three of their last four games heading into the SEC tournament. Tennessee coach Rick Barnes remained noncommittal on whether forward Nate Ament (17.4 ppg.) would be able to play this week in Nashville with his ankle injury .
Louisville (22-9, 11-7 ACC)
Resume: KenPom 16, Net 13. Louisville could hang on this line on the strength of a 7-9 record against Quad 1 opponents. The Cardinals held on for a 92-89 victory against Miami on Saturday.
North Carolina (24-7, 12-6 ACC)
Resume: KenPom 30, Net 23. The Tar Heels will not have Caleb Wilson for the rest of the season. North Carolina is 6-7 against Quad 1 opponents under Hubert Davis, and the Tar Heels do not have a loss in Quads 2-4.
BYU (21-10, 9-9 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom 25, Net 24. The Cougars finished .500 in Big 12 play, and AJ Dybantsa (24.7 ppg.) has 20 or more points in eight straight games. The Cougars will be a tough out in the Big 12 tournament.
No. 7 seeds
Kentucky (19-12, 10-8 SEC)
Resume: KenPom 27, Net 28. The Wildcats' up-and-down season continues under second-year coach Mark Pope, who is 43-24 heading into the SEC tournament.
Villanova (24-7, 13-5 Big East)
Resume: KenPom 32, Net 33. Villanova has a 2-6 record against Quad 1 opponents, but the Wildcats look safe as the third team in from the Big East.
Miami, Fla. (24-7, 13-5 ACC)
Resume: KenPom 29, Net 32. Tre Donaldson (16.8 ppg.) keyed Michigan's Sweet 16 run last season. Will he be the X-factor in the ACC tournament and beyond for the Hurricanes?
Saint Mary's (27-4, 16-2 West Coast)
Resume: KenPom 22, Net 20. Saint Mary's begins West Coast Conference tournament action on Monday. Will the Gaels get another rubber-match against Gonzaga in the WCC tournament championship game?
No. 8 seeds
*Saint Louis (27-4, 15-3 Atlantic 10)
Resume: KenPom 40, Net 27. The Billikens have split their last four games and split the Atlantic 10 regular-season championship with VCU as a result. Robbie Avila averaged 11.8 points per game in that four-game stretch.
*Utah State (25-6, 15-5 MWC)
Resume: KenPom 35, Net 29. The Aggies won the Mountain West regular-season championship and would get an at-large berth no matter what happens in the conference tournament. This will be Utah State's fourth straight NCAA Tournament appearance.
UCLA (21-10, 13-7 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom 28, Net 34. Mick Cronin helped turn UCLA's season around. The Bruins won four of their last five games and had blowout victories against Nebraska and USC to close the regular season.
Georgia (22-9, 8-8 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 31, Net: 31. The Bulldogs won their last three games, including a 98-88 victory against Alabama. Kanon Catchings averaged 28.5 points in the Bulldogs' last two games.
Rest of the field ...
No. 9 seeds
Ohio State (20-11, 12-8 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom 26, Net 30.
Clemson (22-9, 12-6 ACC)
Resume: KenPom 38, Net 36.
Iowa (20-11, 10-10 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom 24, Net 25.
Texas A&M (21-10, 11-7 SEC)
Resume: KenPom 34, Net 43.
No. 10 seeds
*Miami, Ohio (31-0, 18-0 MAC)
Resume: KenPom: 91, Net: 53.
NC State (19-12, 10-8 ACC)
Resume: KenPom 36, Net 35.
TCU (21-10, 11-7 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom 44, Net 40.
UCF (20-10, 9-9 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom 53, Net 51.
No. 11 seeds
Texas (18-13, 9-9 SEC)
Resume: KenPom 33, Net 41.
Santa Clara (25-7, 15-3 West Coast)
Resume: KenPom 37, Net 40.
**VCU (24-7, 15-3 Atlantic 10)
Resume: KenPom 45, Net 44.
**Missouri (20-11, 10-8 SEC)
Resume: KenPom 50, Net 60.
**SMU (19-12, 8-10 ACC)
Resume: KenPom 43, Net 38.
**Indiana (18-13, 9-11 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom 41, Net 37.
No. 12 seeds
*South Florida (23-8, 15-3 American)
Resume: KenPom: 51, Net: 50.
+Northern Iowa (23-12, 11-9 MVC)
Resume: KenPom 70, Net: 77.
*Yale (23-5, 11-3 Ivy)
Resume: KenPom: 78, Net: 64.
*Utah Valley (22-7, 12-4 WAC)
Resume: KenPom: 90, Net: 84.
No. 13 seeds
*High Point (30-4, 15-1 Big South)
Resume: KenPom: 93, Net: 79.
*Stephen F. Austin (27-4, 20-2 Southland)
Resume: Net: 89, KenPom: 86.
*Liberty (25-6, 17-3 Conference USA)
Resume: KenPom: 116, Net: 100.
*UC-Irvine (22-10, 15-5 Big West)
Resume: KenPom: 106, Net: 118.
No. 14 seeds
+North Dakota State (27-7, 14-2 Summit)
Resume: KenPom: 114, Net: 115.
*Wright State (22-11, 15-5 Horizon)
Resume: KenPom: 144, Net: 134.
*Portland State (20-10, 13-5 Big Sky)
Resume: KenPom: 141, Net: 139.
+Troy (22-11, 12-6 Sun Belt)
Resume: KenPom: 153, Net: 138.
No. 15 seeds
*Merrimack (23-10, 17-3 MAAC)
Resume: KenPom: 174, Net: 179.
+Tennessee State (23-9, 15-5)
Resume: KenPom: 186, Net: 170.
*Monmouth (18-14, 11-7 CAA)
Resume: KenPom: 181, Net: 175.
+Furman (22-12, 10-8 Southern)
Resume: KenPom: 186, Net: 194.
No. 16 seeds
+Queens University (21-13, 13-5 Atlantic Sun)
Resume: KenPom: 183, Net: 191.
*Howard (21-10, 11-3 MEAC)
Resume: KenPom: 202, Net: 201.
**UMBC (22-8, 14-2 America East)
Resume: KenPom: 198, Net: 206.
+**Long Island (23-10, 15-3 Northeast)
Resume: KenPom: 217, Net: 199.
**Bethune-Cookman (17-14, 14-4 SWAC)
Resume: KenPom: 238, Net: 255.
**Lehigh (17-16, 11-7 Patriot)
Resume: KenPom: 290, Net: 286.
Bubble watch
New Mexico (22-9, 13-7 MWC)
Resume: KenPom 49, Net 45. Is the Mountain West Conference a one-bid league? Indiana and SMU have better ranking combinations, but should the Lobos be rewarded for their conference record?
Auburn (16-15, 7-11 SEC)
Resume: KenPom 39, Net 39. The Tigers are 4-12 against Quad 1 and have played 22 games against Quads 1-2. It's still going to take at least one win in the SEC tournament to force the issue.
San Diego State (20-10, 14-6 MWC)
Resume: KenPom 47, Net 48. The Aztecs have re-emerged on the bubble despite losses in four of their last six games. San Diego State needs to have a deeper run than New Mexico in the MWC tournament.
Seton Hall (20-11, 10-10 Big East)
Resume: KenPom 52, Net 57. The Pirates have stayed on the outside looking in for the past several weeks, but a 1-5 record against Quad 1 might be too much to overcome without a deep run in the Big East tournament.