March Madness bracket predictions 2026: Final NCAA Tournament Field of 68 projections for Selection Sunday
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March Madness bracket predictions 2026: Final NCAA Tournament Field of 68 projections for Selection Sunday originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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Think about the last two days. Jaden Bradley's buzzer-beater, which gave Arizona a 82-80 victory against Iowa State on Friday. The Wildcats used that momentum to win the Big 12 tournament on Saturday and stake their claim to the No. 1 overall seed.
Michigan beat Wisconsin 68-65 on a game-winning 3-pointer by Yaxel Lendeborg in the final seconds. The Wolverines can still get the No. 1 overall seed, too. Duke won the ACC tournament championship in a 74-70 thriller against Virginia. Duke, Michigan and Arizona are locks for No. 1 seeds. Who is the fourth one?
Did you see the end of Dayton-St. Louis? How about Akron-Toledo? It's here.
We will update our 2025-26 NCAA Tournament projections over the next two days, with a close eye on the Last Four In and First Four Out. There also promises to be some movement on the seed lines before the Selection Show.
This year's Final Four is April 4-6 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Who is in our latest Field of 68? Here's a closer look at Sporting News' final March Madness bracket projections for the 2026 NCAA Tournament, including last four in and snub projections.
KEY:
+ - Clinched automatic NCAA tournament berth
* - Projected automatic bid
** - Last four in
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March Madness 2026 bracket predictions
No. 1 Seeds
+Duke (32-2, 17-1 ACC)
Resume: KenPom: 1, Net: 1. Sporting News Player of the Year Cameron Boozer had 16 points and five rebounds against Virginia. Duke has 17 Quad 1 victories. Arizona and Michigan are close, but we still think the Blue Devils take the top overall seed despite some key injuries.
*Michigan (31-2, 19-1 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom 2, Net 2. The Wolverines advanced to the Big Ten championship game with the victory against Wisconsin. Michigan still has a shot at the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament.
+Arizona (32-2, 16-2 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom 3, Net 3. Arizona continued its nine-game winning streak with a 79-74 victory against Houston in the Big 12 tournament championship, and the No. 1 overall seed is on the table. The Wildcats have 16 Quad 1 victories.
Florida (26-7, 16-2 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 4, Net: 4. The Gators suffered a 91-74 loss to Vanderbilt in the SEC semifinals. Thomas Haugh had 19 points and nine rebounds in the loss. Florida has a 11-6 record against Quad 1.
No. 2 Seeds
Houston (28-6, 14-4 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom: 5, Net: 5. The Cougars missed a chance to work into the No. 1 seed with the loss to Arizona, but they are still on schedule to be either a No. 1 or No. 2 for the fifth time in the last six tournaments under Kelvin Sampson. That defense is still a factor. Which No. 1 seed will they be lined up across?
UConn (29-5, 17-3 Big East)
Resume: KenPom: 12, Net: 10. The Huskies missed a chance to be a No. 1 seed after losing 72-52 to St. John's in the Big East tournament championship. We don't think the Huskies will fall to the No. 3 line, but this was an eye-opening loss under coach Dan Hurley.
Michigan State (25-7, 15-5 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 9, Net: 11. The Spartans lost 88-84 to UCLA in a Big Ten quarterfinal upset on Friday, but Illinois and Nebraska also lost in the same round. Purdue could back-door into the No. 2 seed, but for now we will hold the Spartans on the No. 2 line.
Iowa State (27-6, 12-6 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom: 6, Net: 7. The Cyclones lost 82-80 to Arizona in heart-breaking fashion, but they still have a strong case for the No. 2 seed. Iowa State has 18 victories in Quads 1-2. Illinois has 12. It's a toss-up heading into Selection Sunday.
SN AWARDS: All-America team | Player of the Year | Coach of the Year
No. 3 Seeds
Purdue (26-8, 13-7 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 8, Net: 9. The Boilermakers could surge into the No. 2 seed with a victory against Michigan in the Big Ten championship game. Oscar Cluff had 17 points and 14 rebounds in a 73-66 victory against UCLA on Saturday. Braden Smith added nine more assists. Purdue has 16 victories between Quads 1-2 and is hot at the right time.
Illinois (24-8, 15-5 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 7, Net: 8. Will the Illini fall a line after a 91-88 overtime loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten quarterfinals? Illinois will make its sixth straight tournament appearance, but the Illini have only made it to the Sweet 16 once in that stretch under Brad Underwood.
Gonzaga (30-3, 16-2 West Coast)
Resume: KenPom: 10, Net: 6. Gonzaga hit the 30-win mark with a 79-68 victory against Santa Clara in the West Coast Conference championship Monday. The Bulldogs could be a No. 3 seed, but a Quad 3 loss to Portland could be a separator with a Big Ten or SEC school.
Virginia (29-5, 15-3 ACC)
Resume: KenPom 13, Net 12. The Cavaliers have two losses since Jan. 27 – and both are to Duke. The Cavaliers lost 74-70 to the Blue Devils in an ACC tournament championship thriller on Saturday. Will Virginia bump Nebraska from this line?
No. 4 seeds
Nebraska (26-6, 15-5 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 14, Net: 14. The Huskers have a strong resume, but the 72-58 loss to Purdue marked a quick exit from the Big Ten tournament. Now, will Fred Hoiberg lead Nebraska to its first NCAA tournament victory in school history?
+Vanderbilt (26-7, 11-7 SEC)
Resume: KenPom 11, Net 13. The Commodores are in the SEC tournament championship after a convincing 91-74 victory against Florida. Vanderbilt hit 10 of 21 from 3-point range in the victory. That solidifies a No. 4 seed. Who will fall off this line?
+St. John's (28-6, 18-2 Big East)
Resume: KenPom 16, Net 15. The Red Storm hammered UConn 72-52 in the Big East tournament championship under Rick Pitino. St. John's is still tough to seed with a 4-5 record against Quad 1and a Quad 3 loss, but a clean sweep of the Big East puts them on this line. Could St. John's be a No. 3 seed?
Alabama (23-9, 13-5 SEC)
Resume: KenPom 17, Net 18. Ole Miss stunned the Crimson Tide 80-79 in the SEC quarterfinals, which might lead to a slip to the No. 5 line. Alabama has made it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament three of the last four years under coach Nate Oats.
No. 5 seeds
Arkansas (25-8, 13-5 SEC)
Resume: KenPom 18, Net 17. The Razorbacks advanced to the SEC tournament championship under John Calipari after a thrilling 93-90 overtime victory against Ole Miss. Arkansas still could bump to the No. 4 line. Darius Acuff Jr. had 24 points and seven assists. The Razorbacks will face Vanderbilt on Sunday.
Kansas (23-10, 12-6 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom 21, Net 21. Houston routed Kansas 69-47 in the Big 12 semifinals on Friday. The Jayhawks still have a strong resume, but they have not advanced to the Sweet 16 under Bill Self since 2021-22.
Texas Tech (22-10, 12-6 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom 20, Net 19. The Red Raiders will head into the NCAA Tournament on a three-game losing streak after the loss to Iowa State on Thursday. Texas Tech does have an 8-8 record against Quad 1 – so what is the seeding balance without star player JT Toppin?
Wisconsin (24-9, 14-6 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom 22, Net 25. Wisconsin rallied from another double-digit deficit against Michigan before falling in a 68-65 loss. The Badgers hit 16 three-pointers in the loss. Wisconsin has a 9-8 record against Quad 1 opponents.
No. 6 seeds
Tennessee (22-11, 11-7 SEC)
Resume: KenPom 15, Net 20. Nate Ament averaged 19.5 points in two SEC tournament games, but the Volunteers lost 75-68 to Vanderbilt on Friday. Tennessee is 11-11 in Quads 1-2, and that could mean a drop to this line.
BYU (23-11, 9-9 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom 23, Net 23. Forward AJ Dybantsa (24.7 ppg.) has 20 or more points in nine straight games. He scored 26 points in the 73-66 loss to Houston on Thursday. The Cougars have seven Quad 1 wins and seven Quad 2 wins.
North Carolina (24-8, 12-6 ACC)
Resume: KenPom 29, Net 24. The Tar Heels will not have Caleb Wilson for the NCAA Tournament, and they lost 80-79 to Clemson. North Carolina is 6-8 against Quad 1 opponents under Hubert Davis, and the Tar Heels do not have a loss in Quads 2-4. The 71-68 victory against Duke on Feb. 7 also helps.
Louisville (23-10, 11-7 ACC)
Resume: KenPom 19, Net 16. Louisville could hang on this line on the strength of a 7-10 record against Quad 1 opponents despite a 78-73 loss to Miami in the ACC quarterfinals on Thursday. The Cardinals did not have a loss in Quads 2-4.
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No. 7 seeds
Kentucky (21-13, 10-8 SEC)
Resume: KenPom 28, Net 28. The Wildcats won two games in the SEC tournament before a 71-63 loss to Florida. The up-and-down season continues under second-year coach Mark Pope for Kentucky. Pope took Kentucky to the Sweet 16 last season.
Saint Mary's (27-5, 16-2 West Coast)
Resume: KenPom 24, Net 22. Saint Mary's lost 76-71 to Santa Clara in West Coast Conference tournament action on Monday. The Gaels still have nine wins in Quads 1-2 and should stick on this line as a result.
Miami, Fla. (25-8, 13-5 ACC)
Resume: KenPom 31, Net 32. The Hurricanes fell to 6-6 against Quad 1 opponents after the blowout loss to Virginia, which might make it more difficult to bump up to the No. 6 line. This line is a safer bet now.
UCLA (23-11, 13-7 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom 27, Net 31. Mick Cronin helped turn UCLA's season around. The Bruins won six of their last eight games. Purdue beat UCLA 73-66 in the Big Ten tournament semifinals. Donovan Dent suffered a lower leg strain in the loss. That is worth watching.
No. 8 seeds
+Utah State (28-6, 15-5 MWC)
Resume: KenPom 30, Net 26. The Aggies will make their fourth straight tournament appearance after defeating San Diego State in the Mountain West tournament championship. Utah State was a No. 8 seed in once and a No. 10 twice in those appearances.
Clemson (24-10, 12-6 ACC)
Resume: KenPom 36, Net 34. The Tigers lost 73-61 to Duke in the ACC tournament semifinals. The Tigers could slip behind UCLA as a result, but Clemson does have a 7-6 record against Quad 1 opponents. It will be close.
Ohio State (21-12, 12-8 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom 26, Net 29. We are going to give the No. 8 seed after a 71-67 loss to Michigan in the Big Ten tournament. The Buckeyes do not have a loss outside Quads 1-2.
Georgia (22-10, 8-8 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 32, Net: 33. The Bulldogs have a 6-7 record in Quad 1, which should keep them ahead of Villanova, which is 2-6. This would be a logical 8-9 matchup in the first round.
MORE:Explaining Miami (Ohio)'s MAC strength of schedule debate
Rest of the Field of 68
No. 9 seeds
Villanova (24-8, 13-5 Big East)
Resume: KenPom 33, Net 35.
Iowa (21-12, 10-10 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom 25, Net 27.
TCU (22-11, 11-7 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom 43, Net 39.
Saint Louis (28-5, 15-3 Atlantic 10)
Resume: KenPom 41, Net 30.
No. 10 seeds
NC State (20-13, 10-8 ACC)
Resume: KenPom 34, Net 36.
Texas A&M (21-11, 11-7 SEC)
Resume: KenPom 39, Net 44.
Santa Clara (26-8, 15-3 West Coast)
Resume: KenPom 35, Net 40.
Miami, Ohio (31-1, 18-0 MAC)
Resume: KenPom: 93, Net: 64.
No. 11 seeds
+VCU (26-7, 15-3 Atlantic 10)
Resume: KenPom 46, Net 43.
*South Florida (24-8, 15-3 American)
Resume: KenPom: 49, Net: 45.
**UCF (21-11, 9-9 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom 54, Net 52.
**Texas (18-14, 9-9 SEC)
Resume: KenPom 37, Net 42.
**Missouri (20-12, 10-8 SEC)
Resume: KenPom 52, Net 58.
**SMU (20-13, 8-10 ACC)
Resume: KenPom 42, Net 37.
No. 12 seeds
+Akron (29-5, 17-1 MAC)
Resume: KenPom: 64, Net: 54.
+McNeese (28-5, 19-3 Southland)
Resume: Net: 68, KenPom: 56.
*Yale (24-5, 11-3 Ivy)
Resume: KenPom: 76, Net: 65.
+Northern Iowa (23-12, 11-9 MVC)
Resume: KenPom 71, Net: 72.
No. 13 seeds
+High Point (30-4, 15-1 Big South)
Resume: KenPom: 92, Net: 76.
+Hofstra (24-10, 12-6 CAA)
Resume: KenPom: 88, Net: 88.
+California Baptist (25-8, 13-5 WAC)
Resume: KenPom: 106, Net: 98.
+Hawai'i (24-8, 15-5 Big West)
Resume: KenPom: 107, Net: 101.
No. 14 seeds
+North Dakota State (27-7, 14-2 Summit)
Resume: KenPom: 113, Net: 114.
+Wright State (23-11, 15-5 Horizon)
Resume: KenPom: 140, Net: 127.
+Troy (22-11, 12-6 Sun Belt)
Resume: KenPom: 143, Net: 125.
+Kennesaw State (21-13, 10-10 Conference USA)
Resume: KenPom: 163, Net: 155.
No. 15 seeds
+Idaho (21-14, 9-9 Big Sky)
Resume: KenPom: 145, Net: 144.
+Tennessee State (23-9, 15-5)
Resume: KenPom: 187, Net: 172.
+Furman (22-12, 10-8 Southern)
Resume: KenPom: 190, Net: 186.
+Siena (23-11, 13-7 MAAC)
Resume: KenPom: 192, Net: 183.
No. 16 seeds
+Queens University (21-13, 13-5 Atlantic Sun)
Resume: KenPom: 181, Net: 189.
+UMBC (24-8, 14-2 America East)
Resume: KenPom: 185, Net: 196.
+**Howard (23-10, 11-3 MEAC)
Resume: KenPom: 207, Net: 203.
+**Long Island (24-10, 15-3 Northeast)
Resume: KenPom: 216, Net: 198.
+**Lehigh (18-16, 11-7 Patriot)
Resume: KenPom: 284, Net: 275.
+**Prairie View A&M (18-17, 9-9 SWAC)
Resume: KenPom: 288, Net: 300.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
Bubble watch
San Diego State (22-11, 14-6 MWC)
Resume: KenPom 47, Net 47. The Aztecs are at the mercy of the committee after a 73-62 loss to Utah State in the Mountain West tournament championship. Is a strong non-conference schedule enough to surpass a SEC bubble team such as Texas or Missouri?
Auburn (17-16, 7-11 SEC)
Resume: KenPom 38, Net 38. Will the committee let Auburn in? The Tigers are 4-13 against Quad 1 and have played 22 games against Quads 1-2. Auburn lost 72-62 to Tennessee in the SEC tournament. The Tigers would have the highest KenPom/Net combination of any team left out.
MORE:Worst teams to make March Madness
Indiana (18-14, 9-11 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom 45, Net 41. The Hoosiers lost to Northwestern 74-61 on Thursday, which might prevent the Big Ten from getting a 10th team in the field. Indiana might not be able to escape a 3-4 record in Quad 2.
New Mexico (23-10, 13-7 MWC)
Resume: KenPom 50, Net 46. New Mexico faces an uphill climb after Friday's 64-62 loss to San Diego State. The Lobos are just 2-7 in Quad 1.
Oklahoma (19-15, 7-11 SEC)
Resume: KenPom 40, Net 48. The Sooners lost a 82-79 thriller with Arkansas, which probably knocks Oklahoma out of tournament contention despite a late six-game win streak.