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March Madness 2026: Ranking every men's NCAA tournament First Four and first-round game, from most competitive to least

· Yahoo Sports

The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament begins Tuesday with the First Four. The tourney’s first round officially begins two days later after the field shrinks to 64 teams.

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That’s a lot of games. Need help looking for potential upsets? Or even just a little guidance on how to best spend your viewing hours?

Using KenPom ratings as a barometer, here’s how the 36 games rank in terms of competitiveness — from most to least:

  1. West No. 8 Villanova vs. 9 Utah State: Utah State is 32nd in KenPom, one spot ahead of Villanova. Best 8/9 in bracket.

  2. Midwest No. 8 Georgia vs. 9 Saint Louis: Georgia is eight spots ahead of Saint Louis in KenPom, but susceptible to upset. 

  3. South No. 8 Clemson vs. 9 Iowa: Iowa is 11 spots ahead of Clemson in KenPom. Strongest case for 9-over-8 upset in bracket.

  4. Midwest No. 11 SMU vs. 11 Miami (Ohio): Closest First Four game, despite Miami of Ohio having lost just once in 32 games. 

    [Enter Yahoo Bracket Mayhem now | Printable bracket]

  5. Midwest No. 7 Kentucky vs. 10 Santa Clara: One of the most competitive 7/10s in the bracket.

  6. East No. 8 Ohio State vs. 9 TCU: Ohio State has edge, but TCU is a strong defensive team (23rd in KenPom).

  7. South No. 7 Saint Mary's vs. 10 Texas A&M: SMC is experienced but A&M’s athleticism could win out.

  8. West No. 11 Texas vs. 11 NC State: Two 11-seeds battle for spot vs. BYU

  9. West No. 6 BYU vs. 11 NC State/Texas: AJ Dybantsa will be the difference for BYU, regardless of their first-round opponent.

  10. West No. 7 Miami (Fla.) vs. 10 Missouri: Missouri (KenPom No. 51) is a big step below Miami on paper, but the 7/10 line historically sees upsets often.

  11. East No. 7 UCLA vs. 10 UCF: KenPom gap is 25.

  12. South No. 6 North Carolina vs. 11 VCU: VCU (No. 47) is a tournament-tested defensive team. UNC missing Caleb Wilson (broken thumb) tightens this even more.

  13. Midwest No. 6 Tennessee vs. 11 Miami (Ohio)/SMU: Tennessee is KenPom 14; if Miami (Ohio) beats SMU, it could test Vols.

  14. West No. 5 Wisconsin vs. 12 High Point: Wisconsin is KenPom 24 but only No. 62 defensively. High Point is battle-tested. Not a sure thing for the Badgers.

  15. East No. 6 Louisville vs. 11 South Florida: Bulls have won 11 in a row.

  16. Midwest No. 4 Alabama vs. 13 Hofstra: Alabama is KenPom 16, but its defense (No. 68) is a weakness.

  17. Midwest No. 5 Texas Tech vs. 12 Akron: Texas Tech has strong defense; Akron has a 44-spot KenPom gap but is MAC-tested.

  18. East No. 5 St. John's vs. 12 Northern Iowa: Northern Iowa's No. 25 KenPom defense is elite but St. John's is KenPom 21 overall.

  19. East No. 3 Michigan State vs. 14 N. Dakota State: MSU is KenPom 9 overall but struggled against UCLA in Big Ten tourney.

  20. South No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. 12 McNeese: Vanderbilt is KenPom No. 13, but McNeese is a capable Southland mid-major.

  21. East No. 4 Kansas vs. 13 Cal Baptist: Kansas KenPom No. 10 defense vs. first-time tourney team Cal Baptist.

  22. West No. 4 Arkansas vs. 13 Hawaii: Arkansas is KenPom No. 16 overall with a top-10 offense (No. 6).

  23. South No. 4 Nebraska vs. 13 Troy: Troy has won conference tournament but faces a 70-spot KenPom gap.

  24. South No. 3 Illinois vs. 14 Penn: Illinois is KenPom 5 overall with the nation's No. 1 offense.

  25. Midwest No. 16 UMBC vs. 16 Howard: UMBC is a significant KenPom favorite; 80-spot gap.

  26. Midwest No. 3 Virginia vs. 14 Wright State: Virginia is KenPom No. 19. Wright State has a 76-spot gap to cover.

  27. West No. 3 Gonzaga vs. 14 Kennesaw State: Gonzaga is an elite program with deep tournament experience. Kennesaw has a 91-spot gap.

  28. West No. 2 Purdue vs. 15 Queens: Purdue is KenPom 8 overall with a No. 2 offense. Queens is a first-time tournament team.

  29. East No. 2 UConn vs. 15 Furman: UConn is a national title contender. Furman is a capable mid-major, but gap is enormous.

  30. Midwest No. 1 Michigan vs. 16 UMBC/Howard: Michigan is KenPom 2. Even if UMBC wins in First Four, gap is too much.

  31. South No. 2 Houston vs. 15 Idaho: Houston is a KenPom power with an elite defense. No contest.

  32. South No. 16 Lehigh vs. 16 Prairie View A&M: Not all 16 seeds are created equal. Could be a walkover in the First Four.

  33. South No. 1 Florida vs. 16 Lehigh/Prairie View A&M: Winner of First Four faces an overwhelming gap. Smooth opener.

  34. East No. 1 Duke vs. 16 Siena: Duke's No. 1 KenPom defense vs. Siena’s No. 155. One of the most lopsided matchups on paper in the entire bracket.

  35. Midwest No. 2 Iowa State vs. 15 Tennessee State: Tennessee State has a 158-spot gap.

  36. West No. 1 Arizona vs. 16 LIU: Arizona No. 3 KenPom, LIU No. 168. Enough said.

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