Here’s the latest petrol price projection for April 2026
· The South African
Global energy markets remain under pressure as escalating conflict in the Middle East continues to drive sharp swings in oil prices, deepening concerns about inflation and rising fuel costs.
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The price of Brent crude recently surged above $115 per barrel following renewed attacks linked to Iran and Israel, with key energy infrastructure targeted across the region.
Volatility intensifies amid conflict
Missile strikes on Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar, along with drone attacks in Saudi Arabia and fires in Kuwait, have heightened fears of supply disruptions.
At the centre of concern is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil flows.
However, markets have recently shown signs of sharp volatility rather than a one-directional surge.
Oil prices have pulled back in recent days, with Brent crude dropping below $100 per barrel, as hopes of a possible ceasefire between the US and Iran briefly eased supply fears.
Despite the decline, analysts warn that prices remain highly unstable and could spike again if tensions escalate or negotiations fail.
Sharp fuel price pressure in South Africa
The global turmoil is already translating into pressure locally.
According to the Central Energy Fund, the latest March data shows significant under-recoveries:
- Petrol: up to R5.72 per litre
- Diesel: around R9.81 per litre
These figures still point to steep fuel price hikes in April, despite the recent dip in global oil prices.
Rand weakness compounds the impact
South Africa’s reliance on imported fuel leaves it highly exposed to global shocks.
Fuel prices are influenced by:
- International oil prices
- The rand-dollar exchange rate
- Government taxes and levies
With the rand under pressure, any sustained period of elevated oil prices – even with short-term dips – is likely to feed through to consumers.
Inflation risks remain
Higher fuel costs are expected to ripple across the economy, increasing:
- Transport costs
- Production expenses
- Consumer prices
Economists warn that sustained energy volatility could continue to drive inflation and weigh on economic growth globally.
Uncertain outlook
While the recent drop below $100 offers some temporary relief, oil markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments.
For South African consumers, the key takeaway is that price volatility – not just high prices – is now the biggest risk, with any renewed escalation likely to push fuel costs sharply higher again in the coming weeks.
Latest forecast
Below, the latest projections as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):
FUELPRICE CHANGEPetrol 93increase of 518 centsPetrol 95increase of 572 centsDiesel 0.05%increase of 967 centsDiesel 0.005%increase of 981 centsIlluminating Paraffinincrease of 1 142 centsIf the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – an increase of 518 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and an increase of 572 cents for 95 users is anticipated.
Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 967 and 981 cents per litre increase.
Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to rise by 1 142 cents in price.
FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:
1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices
2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products
Oil price
At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $98.85 a barrel.
Exchange rate
At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.87/$.
The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on either Tuesday, 31 March or Tuesday, 7 April (TBC).