NCAA Tournament and March Madness Sweet 16 Best Bets, Odds, Predictions: Duke, Michigan, Iowa State
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The Sweet 16 tips of Thursday and after a successful round of 32, I am ready to keep the ball rolling. Last season, every single favorite won in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, and this year, I don’t see much changing. Favorites dominated the round of 32 in this tournament and I think the favorites roll in the Sweet 16. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings.
St. John’s vs Duke (-6.5): O/U 141.5
Per multiple sports books, St. John's is one of the most popular bets of the Sweet 16 as they are taking mostly nothing but Red Storm money. Despite that, the spread has stayed firm at -6.5, which is telling to me.
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Duke is absolutely the better team and might be finding their form after a first round scare against No. 16 Siena. Duke pounded TCU in the round of 32, winning by 23 points after leading at the half, 38-34. This matchup should feature a much-lower scoring start as St. John's will work inside-out versus Duke and the Blue Devils will do the same.
Duke is 12-of-47 from three (25.5%) in the tournament and St. John's is 21-of-64 from deep (32.8%). Neither team shot it well from deep in the regular season either, ranking outside the top 100, so I expect plenty of layups and free-throws between the two titans. I will go Under 66.5 points in the first half and roll with Duke to cover the spread. Duke has held its two opponents to 22 and 24 second-half points, which could be a problem for the Jonnies.
Pick: Duke -6.5 (1 unit), 1H Under 66.5 (1 unit)
Alabama vs Michigan (-9.5): O/U 172.5
Will wee see No. 1 seed Michigan go down in the Sweet 16? I don't think so. Alabama won't get Aden Holloway back for this matchup, but even if he was, I don't think he would be enough. Michigan has scored 196 points through two tournament games and while Alabama has put up 180 points, the Wolverines' defense will be the differentiator in this matchup.
Alabama relies on the three-pointer too much to trust here. The Tide score 42% of its points from three, which is the 9th-most, compared to scoring 37.9% of their points from two (364th). Not many teams score more of their points from three than two, which is a dangerous game to play. Another trend of Bama's that I don't trust is the defensive turnover percentage. Alabama ranks 358th out of 365 teams in the country with a 12.8 defensive turnover percentage. The only team in the tournament that is worse in that category is Illinois.
Michigan is top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency this season, plus has a size advantage here. The Wolverines are a top 50 rebounding team both ways and the Tide ranks 101st and 287th, so Michigan has a major advantage there too with Aday Mara, Yaxel Lendenborg, and Morez Johnson. Michigan's offense plays at a similar tempo to Alabama, which is a positive for the Wolverines, but the defense keeps its opponents to a much slower pace compared to the Crimson Tide.
I think Michigan will be too much for Alabama and covers the big number. I played the Wolverines to cover -8.5 (-125) and -9.5 (-105) in this matchup. Alabama should run into trouble shooting the triple and grabbing rebounds, plus scoring in the paint against this Michigan front court won't be a walk in the park.
Pick: Michigan -8.5 (1 unit)
Tennessee vs Iowa State (-3.5): O/U 140.5
While I have Iowa to make the Elie 8 at -130, I am going to get involved with the first half of this matchup. Iowa State has looked elite, while Tennessee hasn't looked too shabby either through two games of the tournament.
Tennessee routed Miami of Ohio in the round of 64, then led Virginia for a majority of the game and first half. However, they are running into a buzzsaw here. Iowa State is playing some its best basketball at the right time and without a key player in Joshua Jefferson. After the first half against Kentucky, led 31-30, Iowa State figured out what they were doing wrong without Jefferson and rolled Kentucky, 51-33 in the second half.
The Vols have struggled through two games with turnovers. Tennessee has combined for 26 turnovers in two games and had 25 free throw attempts in their previous game. Iowa State doesn't let its opponents get to the free-throw line often, in fact, only 16.8% of opponents points come from the line (324th). I think the Cyclones matchup well here with or without Jefferson. I will take Iowa State to lead the first half and cover -1.5.
Pick: Iowa State 1H -1.5 (1 unit)
First Four Record: 1-0 +1 unit
Round of 64 Record: 12-9 +2.1 units
Round of 32 Record: 9-6 +2.53 units
Futures Record: 1-2 +0.12 units
Overall Record: 23-17 +5.75 units
NCAA Tournament Future Picks
1 unit: Houston to make the Elite 8 (+110)
1 unit: Purdue to make the Elite 8 (+105)
1 unit: Iowa State to make the Elite 8 (-130)
1 unit: Arizona to win the National Championship (+380)
0.5 unit: Houston to win the National Championship (+1200)
0.5 unit: Houston to win the National Championship (+1100)
0.5 unit: Iowa State to win the National Championship (+1800)
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