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More War

· Reason

Monday morning escalation. President Donald Trump is starting the week off on a belligerent note.

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In a Truth Social post, the president said if Iran's new leaders do not agree to a deal to end the war "shortly" and if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened immediately, the U.S. will "will conclude our lovely 'stay' in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!)." (Kharg Island is a small coastal island and an important export hub through which 90 percent of Iran's oil exports pass.)

According to reporting from The Wall Street Journal, Trump is also considering conducting a military operation to seize Iran's 1,000-pound stockpile of enriched uranium. And last night, the president said that Iran is "not going to have a country" unless they submit to U.S. demands to end the war.

The White House reportedly transmitted a 15-point plan to end the war to Iran via Pakistani intermediaries last week. Iranian officials have said they've received the plan, but no direct negotiations are ongoing. An Iranian spokesperson said U.S. demands are "excessive" on Monday.

Meanwhile, Iran continues to launch missiles and drone attacks on its U.S.-allied Gulf neighbors. Iranian-allied Houthis in Yemen entered the war on Saturday by launching missiles at Israel.

In both issuing threats of a wider war and saying the negotiations are going swimmingly, Trump reveals his own eagerness to quickly end the conflict. Unfortunately for Trump and everyone else, the war the president started with Iran is not something he can end unilaterally.

As Reason's Matthew Petti wrote last week:

The fundamental problem is that Trump put Iran's back against the wall. He began the war trying to kill "past, present, and future" Iranian leaders and threatening the rank-and-file with "certain death." Worse yet, Trump played the same trick on Iran twice. In June 2025, he treated U.S. negotiations with Iran as a ruse to enable an Israeli attack. Half a year later, Trump did exactly the same thing, bombing Iran right before the next round of talks.

Iranian leaders now believe (and have said so publicly) that the only way to avoid being attacked again in six months is to extract a high enough price as a guarantee against future attacks. That doesn't mean they will succeed. But it does mean that Trump alone cannot decide when the war will end.

In short, it's in Iran's interest to keep the conflict going and make it as painful as possible in order to deter future U.S. aggression. Truth Social threats won't change that reality.

Mistaken missile strikes. U.S. missiles hit an elementary school and sports hall on the first day of the war, a New York Times investigation has found.

The school and sports hall are immediately adjacent to an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps facility. The Times says it's not clear whether the school strike was intentional, the result of a flaw with the type of munition used (which had not previously been used in combat), or the result of improper target selection.

Iranian media claims that 21 people were killed in the strikes, including several children.

The strike occurred the same day as a U.S. cruise missile hit a girls' school in the city of Minab, killing 175 people.

Scenes from D.C.: There's much to complain about when it comes to spring weather in Washington, D.C. Peak bloom of the city's famous cherry blossoms isn't one of them. Who doesn't love a good cherry blossom?

If you want to stay up-to-date with the cherry blossoms, I'd recommend following the daily updates from cherryblossomwatch.com.

QUICK HITS

  • Israeli police prevented Catholic clergy from entering the Church of the Holy Sepulchre to celebrate Mass on Palm Sunday, citing security concerns during the ongoing war with Iran.
  • Several Australian states are suspending public transit fares to cope with higher oil prices resulting from the war with Iran. Any profit-seeking business would be raising fares right now to profit from increased demand for substitutes to auto travel.
  • I doubt any Star Trek: The Next Generation episode passes this test.

  • Ross Douthat on the simultaneous revival and decline of religion in America.
  • Thieves have stolen a shipment of KitKat bars on its way from an Italian factory to customers in Poland.
  • Sen. Rand Paul (R–Ky.) says he's 50–50 on running for president in 2028.

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